I’d forgotten this, but last June someone was predicting the “worst winter on record” for 2011/12. I poo-pooed it as bunkum, simply because no one can predict the weather properly. If the Met Office, with its array of supercomputers can’t do it, a bunch of geeky old guys with seaweed and distorted egos certainly can’t.
My opinions upset a few people. I was getting what amounted to hate mail from people defending Exacta – the organisation behind the original forecast.
Well, all you have to do is look at the official statistics for last winter.
December, January, and February temperatures were all well above their respective means, and the whole winter was a mean 4.5°C warmer than the previous three winters, and nearly 1°C warmer than the mean 1971-2000 figure . There was a two-week cold snap at the end of January. Rainfall was 99% of the 1971-2000 average, and sunshine was 113% of the average. It was classed as a mild winter.
So, I rest my case. The story from last June was nonsensical scaremongering, fed by alchemy and pseudo-science.
Winter 2011/12 was NOT the coldest on record. Not by a million pieces of wet seaweed! Just like I predicted.