You may remember that back in June, I reported that an insurance company was stirring up the panic by saying that we were due for the worst winter on record. Their source was an amateur forecasting outfit called Exacta.
I received several… well, almost-hate mail would be about the best way of describing them… messages via the blog contact form telling me I was wrong to question Exacta, who had apparently predicted the last two winters to an accuracy which successfully included the number of clouds in the sky at any given moment, and the best way to cook a Turkey!
MY prediction for the 2011/12 winter was:
It will be generally colder than summer, it might be wet, and it may or may not snow heavily at some point.
Now, it is obviously too early to gloat properly, but with the already record-breaking HIGH temperatures we have had, one thing that can be said with absolute certainty is that the insurance company and Exacta got it absolutely, completely, and totally wrong.
Even if we did get some record-breaking lows and roof-busting snowfall between now and March, that’s NOT what Exacta predicted. They did not predict record-breaking highs between October-December. This sums up the reliability of their – and any – long-range forecast.
MY forecast, on the other hand, is absolutely spot-on!
More to the point, how many people are driving around on more expensive winter tyres, where the temperature has hardly dipped below 7°C even at night since October in many places?
Talking to pupils yesterday, we noted that many deciduous trees and shrubs still have leaves on them. In many cases these leaves are distinctly green. Gorse bushes have repeatedly flowered throughout the year, and are doing so again now. And I’ve seen numerous Cherry Trees which have pink blossom ready to burst out of buds.